Week’s main events (October 27 – October 31)

This week, global markets will focus on key monetary policy decisions and several important corporate and macroeconomic events. The main event will be the FOMC meeting, which will take place amid the ongoing US government shutdown, during which the publication of several economic data points will be suspended. Despite the limited statistics, investors will closely monitor the Fed’s rhetoric regarding the prospects for policy easing. The European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and the Bank of Canada (BoC) will also announce interest rate decisions, making the coming week one of the busiest of the year for global monetary policy.

On the geopolitical front, the focus will be on the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which will take place amid efforts to stabilize trade relations and reduce tariff pressure. Macroeconomic releases are expected to include Eurozone and Canadian GDP data, as well as inflation reports from Australia and Eurozone countries, which will help investors assess the next steps for central banks. At the same time, the peak period for the publication of reports by major US companies, including Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Visa, Mastercard, ExxonMobil, and Chevron, will begin. The results of technology giants and energy corporations may set the overall tone for stock markets and influence expectations for interest rates.

Monday, October 27

On Monday, investors will focus on data on Germany’s business climate. A slight increase in the indicator is expected, which is positive for the European currency. During the Asian session, it is important to pay attention to the speech by RBA Governor Bullock. Any hint of monetary policy easing could put pressure on the Australian dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 10:15 (GMT+2);
– German ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) (tentative).

Tuesday, October 28

The only important economic event on Tuesday is the GfK consumer confidence report. It will not have a strong impact on the market, but it will be useful for understanding the overall state of the consumer segment in the Eurozone.

Main events of the day:

– German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) (tentative).

Wednesday, October 29

Wednesday will be a busy day for economic events. During the Asian session, Australia’s consumer inflation report will be released. Growth is expected to increase from 3.0% to 3.1% y/y and from 0.7% to 1.1% q/q. Rising inflationary pressure is usually accompanied by currency appreciation. This may have a positive impact on the Australian dollar. Next, there are two meetings of central banks: the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US Federal Reserve (FOMC). In both cases, interest rates are expected to decrease by 0.25%: in Canada, the rate is expected to fall from 2.5% to 2.25%. In the US, the rate is expected to fall from 4.25% to 4.00%. Given the market has already priced in this scenario, a significant currency decline is not expected. However, it is important to assess the trajectory of interest rates going forward. Any hint of a further rate decrease will put pressure on the currency. On the other hand, any hint of a pause could, conversely, support the currency in the short term. Therefore, it is very important to assess the tone at press conferences.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand RBNZ Gov Hawkesby Speaks (m/m) at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Monetary Policy Statement at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada BOC Press Conference at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US Federal Funds Rate at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Statement at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 (GMT+2);

Thursday, October 30

Two more central bank meetings are expected on Thursday: the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The Bank of Japan is expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. Last week, Japan elected a new prime minister who supports a soft monetary policy, raising questions about the Bank of Japan’s path of interest rate hikes. For the Japanese yen, the medium-term outlook is negative. The European Central Bank is set to keep its interest rate at 2.15%. Given the likely rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve, the euro may gain an advantage over the USD and CAD. Also on Thursday, important reports will include Eurozone GDP data, Eurozone unemployment figures, and German inflation data, all published ahead of the ECB meeting. A meeting between US President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is also possible on Thursday. A breakthrough in trade negotiations could trigger a risk-on scenario, boosting stock indices and other risk assets. On the other hand, if the leaders fail to reach an agreement, there could be a sharp sell-off of risk assets.

Main events of the day:

– Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan BOJ Outlook Report at 05:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– German GDP (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) (tentative);
– US GDP (m/m) (tentative);
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

Friday, October 31

On Friday, there are two key events: inflation data in Tokyo and the Eurozone inflation report. Inflation in Tokyo is a leading indicator of nationwide inflation. Price growth may provide short-term support for the Japanese yen. In the Eurozone, consumer prices are expected to decline slightly from 2.2% to 2.1% year-on-year. This may have a short-term negative impact on the euro, but in the medium term, the euro is in a stronger position than the US dollar. Investors should also keep an eye on Canada’s monthly GDP report. It’s expected to be flat, but if GDP comes in negative, the Canadian dollar could face extra selling pressure.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– US Core PCE Price (m/m) (tentative).

by JustMarkets, 2025.10.27

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