Week’s main events (February 03 – February 07)

The week’s main events will be the Bank of England meeting and the US Non-Farm Payrolls report. New US employment data could provide new insights into the state of labor demand in the world’s largest economy — and possibly influence the Federal Reserve’s future course on interest rates. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut interest rates and hint at forthcoming cuts as the UK economy stagnates. Traders will also closely monitor Trump’s policies, particularly the 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10 percent from China, which went into effect Feb. 1, adding to worries about the uncertain impact of heightened global trade tensions. Global PMI data, Eurozone inflation, and Canadian employment data will also be a focus.

Monday, February 03

On Monday, data on manufacturing activity among key economies will be released. This is an indicator of health that is important to evaluate. Typically, an increase in the indicator has a favorable impact on the national exchange rate. Also, on Monday, there will be an online meeting of OPEC+ members. Due to Trump’s tariff policy (Trump plans to announce broader tariffs related to oil and natural gas around Feb. 18), the cartel may take unexpected steps. Also, on Monday, inflation data will be released in the Eurozone. A slight decrease in inflationary pressures is expected, which may have a negative impact on the euro.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– OPEC+ meeting at 13:00 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, February 04

The main event on Tuesday will be the JOLT’s Job Openings report. Job openings are expected to fall from 8.10M to 7.88M, which may negatively impact Friday’s main report, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from the US Fed at the next meeting. This is a negative scenario for the USD. New Zealand’s labor market data is also worth paying attention to on Tuesday. This report is published once a quarter and will strongly influence the RBNZ’s decision. Unemployment is expected to rise from 4.8% to 5.1%, which could be an additional negative for NZD.

Main events of the day:

– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Unemployment Rate (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, February 05

On Wednesday, the main reports will be US and Canadian trade balance data. Export and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. As a rule, if the actual data is better than expected, it positively affects the exchange rate. Also, traders should not miss the US Crude Oil Inventories data, which significantly impacts oil prices.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

Thursday, February 06

The Bank of England will hold a monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Economists expect the Bank of England to cut its rate to 4.5% from 4.75%. The British pound will come under pressure in this scenario, especially if economic forecasts are worse than expected.

Main events of the day:

– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Monetary Policy Report at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

Friday, February 07

On Friday, investors’ main focus will be the January U.S. unemployment report. Economists forecast that 154,000 jobs were created in the US last month, down from 256,000 in December. The unemployment rate will be 4.1%, the same as last month’s. Average hourly earnings growth is expected to be 0.3%, which is also in line with December. A resilient labor market will be favorable for the US dollar. However, the USD could be subject to a strong sell-off if the data is worse than expected. Alongside this report, Canada will also release labor market data. Unemployment is expected to rise from 6.7% to 6.8%, and weak employment growth is expected at 26.5K, down from 90.9K last month. Traders should also watch India’s central bank meeting, where the RBI is expected to start a rate-cutting cycle from 6.5% to 6.25%.

Main events of the day:

– India RBI Interest Rate Decision at 06:30 (GMT+2);
– German Trade Balance at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Non Farm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Inflation Expectations at 17:00 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2025.02.03

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