Week’s main events (July 05 – August 09)

It will be a relatively quiet week for economic events. The main focus of investors will be the RBA Interest Rate Decision. At the last meeting, the Australian Bank left the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.35%, but there was discussion of raising the rate by another 25 bps as inflation is falling slower than previously expected. Therefore, economists are confident that the RBA will keep rates unchanged at the current meeting. China will release trade data on Thursday and inflation data for July on Friday, which is expected to show a slight increase in consumer prices. Also, this week it is worth paying attention to the New Zealand unemployment data, which is published once a quarter, sharply increasing the volatility on currency pairs with NZD.

Monday, August 05

On Monday, investors will look primarily at the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting. If the protocol shows that policymakers are ready to keep raising interest rates until the end of the year, the yen may remain on the plus side, even though the rally already seems excessive. Also, on Monday, data on business activity in the service sector in key economies will be released. It’s a bank holiday in Canada and Australia.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, August 06

The biggest event on Tuesday will be the Australian Interest Rate Decision. Inflation data for Q2 showed that while core inflation rose to 3.8% y/y from 3.6%, more closely watched fundamentals weakened. The RBA is likely to become more dovish against this backdrop, but the rate will remain unchanged until December. Equally important will be the data on the trade balance of major economies.

Main events of the day:

– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3).
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, August 07

The most essential Wednesday release for investors will be the unemployment report in New Zealand. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.3% to 4.6% year-on-year, which could put further pressure on the kiwi as it brings the RBNZ closer to a rate cut cycle. Also, traders should not miss the US Crude Oil Inventories data, which significantly impacts oil prices.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Unemployment Rate (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, August 08

On Thursday, investors should keep a close eye on the Chinese Trade Balance data. This data affects Asian indices and the currencies AUD and NZD. In the US session, it is worth paying attention to the initial jobless claims report. This report is released weekly and shows well the state of affairs in the labor market. Weak data will continue to put pressure on the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, August 09

China’s inflation data will be the main event on Friday. No significant changes are expected, but Asian indices could be volatile. Also, traders will watch the Canadian labor market report on Friday. The Bank of Canada has proven to be one of the most dovish central banks, having already cut interest rates twice and signaling that further cuts may be just around the corner. Investors are almost certain that the third consecutive 25bp rate cut will come in September, and a soft employment report could seal the deal. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.

Main events of the day:

– China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.08.05

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