Week’s main events (July 01 – July 05)

This week promises to be volatile due to a lot of important events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the week’s main event, as it is one of the most important parameters for the Fed’s monetary policy decision. Continued strength in the labor market could strengthen the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. The FOMC protocol on Wednesday will give investors insight into how FED policymakers see the future trajectory of interest rates, as markets are still awaiting the first-rate cut from the US Fed. On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra with a panel discussion on «Monetary Policy in an Era of Transition.» Investors will be waiting for fresh ideas on the future of interest rates. Also, this week, parliamentary elections in France and the United Kingdom will conclude. The arrival of a far-right party in France could cause severe unrest inside the country and put pressure on the European currency. In the UK, on the contrary, the victory of the opposition party may support the British currency.

Monday, July 01

On Monday, traders should not miss essential manufacturing PMI data in main economies. It’s a leading indicator of economic health. Generally, if the actual data is better than expected, it is positive for the currency. It’s a bank holiday in Canada and Hong Kong.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, July 02

On Tuesday, the main event for investors will be the Australia RBA Meeting Minutes. Rising inflation, coupled with weak economic growth, makes the RBA more hawkish than other central banks. The RBA protocol may confirm this assumption and provide additional fuel for the Australian currency. Also, on Tuesday, Eurozone inflation data will be released. A slight decrease in consumer prices is expected. Along with political uncertainty in France, the euro may be under pressure this week.

Main events of the day:

– Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, July 03

On Wednesday, investors will focus on the US FOMC Meeting Minutes. This report, published for the previous month, allows traders to analyze the actions of Fed policymakers regarding further monetary policy and understand the mood inside. Volatility in currency pairs with the US dollar will increase. Major countries will report on the Service’s PMI. Also note that due to US Independence Day on July 4, the natural gas storage report will be released on Wednesday.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:15 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 19:00 (GMT+3).
– US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

Thursday, July 04

Thursday is Independence Day in the United States, a bank holiday, so volatility in the financial markets in the US trading session will be low. At the European session, it is worth paying attention to the Swiss inflation data. Lower inflationary pressure may hurt the CHF. Meanwhile, polls are predicting a victory for the opposition Labor Party in Thursday’s UK election, which could result in sterling gaining further support.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK General Election (All Day).

Friday, July 05

The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed takes this indicator into account to adjust monetary policy. Economists expect the US economy to add 189,000 jobs in June after the previous month’s 272,000 increase exceeded estimates, indicating a resilient labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.0%. Strong labor market data will support the US dollar. Canada will also release jobs data on Friday, which could prove crucial to the Bank of Canada’s July policy decision. Expectations of a rate cut next month fell sharply after better-than-expected consumer price index data for May.

Main events of the day:

– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.07.01

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