Week’s main events (June 10 – June 14)

This is a week full of important economic events. The US Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, with market watchers focusing on how many rate cuts will be made before the end of 2024. Inflation data for May is due to be released a few hours before Wednesday’s Fed statement. Further signs of weakening inflation could reinforce expectations of a rate cut, especially given signs of economic weakness. The Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting on Friday. At the same time, policymakers may cut back on their still massive bond purchases. This may provide some support to the yen. Market participants will also closely monitor the latest UK jobs report, trying to see if wage pressures are easing fast enough for a Bank of England rate cut to be an immediate prospect.

Monday, June 10

Monday will be a relatively calm and non-volatile day. No significant news is expected in the European and American sessions. It’s a bank holiday in China, Hong Kong, and Australia.

Main events of the day:

– Japan GDP (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, June 11

On Tuesday, investors will focus on the UK labor market data. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, while wage growth is estimated to remain unchanged. Economists had expected a rate cut in June, but persistent inflationary pressures mean that markets will not fully appreciate the possibility of such a move until November.

Main events of the day:

– Australia NAB Business Confidence at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, June 12

On Wednesday, all investors’ attention will be focused on the Fed’s monetary policy meeting as well as on the US inflation data, which will be released a few hours before the US Fed meeting. Inflation data is expected to be unchanged from the previous report. As for the US Fed, it is also expected to be unchanged — rates are expected to remain unchanged. Therefore, the main focus of traders’ attention will be directed to the speech of the head of the US Fed, Jerome Powell, at the press conference on how many rate cuts there will be this year. The updated dot plot will likely point to two 25-basis point rate cuts this year, up from three in March. Volatility on the US dollar currency pairs, US indices, and gold will rise. Investors should also keep a close eye on China’s inflation data, which strongly influences Asian indices.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– China Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Producer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Inventories (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Economic Projections at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Monetary Policy Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 22:15 (GMT+3).

Thursday, June 13

On Thursday, it’s worth not missing the US pro-mushroom inflation data, which predicts consumer inflation. It is expected to rise by 0.5%, which may support the US dollar. Also, on Thursday, Australia will release its labor market report. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%, and the economy is expected to see a 5k drop in employment. Such data will be a sign of cooling, which is dovish for RBA policy and negative for AUD.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Williams Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3).

Friday, June 14

The main event to watch on Friday is the Japan Central Bank meeting. The Bank of Japan is expected to stick to its soft monetary policy. Still, there is a high probability of a 1 trillion yen ($6.4 billion) reduction in monthly purchases to about 5 trillion yen, which may temporarily support the Japanese currency.

Main events of the day:

– Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.06.10

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