Week’s main events (March 18 – March 22)

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold a very important meeting on Tuesday, where there is more than a 50% chance that the BoJ will finally exit the negative interest rate policy. Immediately after this meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet to plan further monetary policy plans. The RBA is expected to keep the rate unchanged, but the policy bias may remain hawkish. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will meet on Wednesday. No changes are expected at this meeting, but any clues as to the central bank’s outlook for rate cuts will influence the market. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE) will hold monetary policy meetings. No changes are expected, so the focus will be on the policymakers’ bias for the next meetings. The Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) will meet this week, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will decide on the interest rate, and the UK, Canada, and Japan will release updated inflation data.

Monday, March 18

On Monday, several economic statistics on China will be released. This data has a strong influence on Asian indices. Weak data is expected. Also, on Monday, the final inflation data will be published in Europe. No changes are expected.

Main events of the day:

– China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, March 19

Tuesday’s Bank of Japan meeting could be one of the most important in years, with officials set to decide whether to end eight years of negative interest rates, marking a landmark departure from a massive economic stimulus program. If the BoJ raises rates, it could cause excessive volatility in yen currency pairs. Also, on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its meeting. No changes are expected, so a lot will depend on what bias the RBA will choose for the next month. A rejection of the hawkish stance will harm the Aussie dollar. At the end of the trading day, traders will be awaiting Canadian inflation data. However, no significant changes are expected in the indicators, which may affect the CAD insignificantly.

Main events of the day:

– Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 04:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 04:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, March 20

On Wednesday, the Fed will meet on monetary policy and interest rates. Last week’s better-than-expected US producer and consumer price data forced traders to delay a future Fed rate cut. No changes are expected at this meeting, so investors will be focused on any clues about the central bank’s rate cut prospects, the strength of the US economy, and the possibility of an inflationary rebound. Volatility with USD currency pairs will increase sharply. It should also be noted that the UK will publish inflation data in the morning, influencing the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday. A further decline in consumer prices is projected. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.

Main events of the day:

– China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 03:15 (GMT+2);
– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:45 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Economic Projections at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Statement at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

Thursday, March 21

Thursday will also be a volatile day. The Switzerland National Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting. The SNB is expected to keep the rate unchanged but may change its tone to a more dovish one due to lower inflation. This may put some pressure on the CHF. Next, the Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meeting. Investors will be watching for any changes in language regarding the «revision» of the bank rate following inflation data. Markets expect the Bank of England to start cutting rates in August. However, if the consensus is pushed to a closer date, it would be a strong negative for the GBP. Also worth watching on Thursday is the Bank of Norway meeting and the Hong Kong inflation rate.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Norway Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– U.K. Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– U.K. Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– U.S. Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– U.S. Services PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– U.S. Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– U.S. Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

Friday, March 22

Japan will release its inflation report on Friday, where prices are expected to jump from 2.0% to 2.8% annually. If the Bank of Japan leaves the rate in negative territory on Tuesday, a rise in inflation will increase the likelihood of a rate hike at the April meeting. This could lead to a sharp appreciation of the Japanese currency. Also, on Friday, UK and Canadian retail sales data will be released. Weak data is expected, increasing the likelihood of an earlier rate cut. As a rule, this is negative for the national currency.

Main events of the day:

– Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Ifo Business Climate Index (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2024.03.18

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