Week’s main events (November 11 – November 15)

In the United States, all eyes will be on consumer and producer inflation data, retail sales, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials as investors look for clues about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. The UK will release key indicators, including the unemployment rate, wage growth, third-quarter GDP, and industrial production data. Also, traders will focus on data on China. The Chinese economy is still struggling to recover, and the next data will show how the recent stimulus has affected the economic outlook.

Monday, November 11

Monday will be a fairly quiet day. No major economic events are expected in the European and American sessions. Traders’ interest may be only on the inflation expectations data from New Zealand. It’s a bank holiday in the United States and Canada.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 04:00 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, November 12

On Tuesday, traders should pay attention to the UK labor market data, which the Bank of England considers when forming monetary policy. A continued slowdown in wage growth will confirm the policy direction and allow the Bank of England to make two rate cuts already this year. Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index will also be in focus.

Main events of the day:

– Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 17:15 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, November 13

Investors will focus on the inflation data in the United States on Wednesday. Economists expect the consumer price index to show a 2.4% annualized rate in October, matching September’s pace. September’s annualized gain was the smallest in more than three and a half years, reinforcing bets on a Fed rate cut. However, there could be surprises in the form of a slight acceleration in inflation, which could support the US dollar. Investors should also pay attention to the Australian Wage Price Index report. As a rule, the growth of this index is accompanied by the strengthening of the Australian dollar.

Main events of the day:

– US FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 00:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Logan Speaks at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Musalem Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Schmid Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+2).

Thursday, November 14

Thursday will be a busy day. Traders should analyze the data on the labor market in Australia. A weak report is expected, which may have a negative impact on AUD as it will increase the probability of a rate cut from the RBA. Traders should also pay attention to the US producer inflation data. The annualized rate is expected to rise from 1.8% to 2.2%, which could significantly support the US dollar. Also on Thursday, at the end of the day, 3 heads of central banks will make speeches: US Fed Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde, and Bank of England Governor Bailey.

Main events of the day:

– Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 01:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 23:15 (GMT+2).

Friday, November 15

On Friday, traders will focus on US retail sales data. It is expected to grow by a modest 0.3%, but it may positively affect the dollar. Data from China will show how much stimulus measures have affected the economy. Considering protracted deflation, weak economic data may increase the likelihood of additional stimulus from Beijing, which may positively affect Asian indices. Also, GDP data for Japan and the UK will be released on Friday.

Main events of the day:

– Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2024.11.11

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