Week’s main events (November 04 – November 08)

This is going to be an extremely volatile week. We will witness the US presidential election, the Fed, Bank of England, and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meetings. Finally, China’s National People’s Congress Committee will be meeting all week. The US presidential election will have far-reaching fiscal policy and global trade implications. We should expect increased volatility in stock indices and gold throughout Tuesday and the vote counting period. On Tuesday, the RBA will announce its decision, and Australia’s central bank is expected to keep the rate at 4.35%. Rather than Wednesday as usual, Thursday will see the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, where a 0.25% rate cut is expected. Also, on Thursday, a 0.25% rate cut is expected from the Bank of England.

Monday, November 04

Monday will be relatively quiet for Asian and European indices and currencies. Among the events, we can highlight data on manufacturing activity in the Eurozone and Germany. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.

Main events of the day:

– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report at 22:00 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, November 05

On Tuesday, the volatile fun will begin. The National People’s Congress Committee meeting will be scrutinized for further stimulus to the Chinese economy. Any additional stimulus will boost Asian indices, especially CHA50 and HK50. Next, the RBA meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged, which is positive for AUD. Next, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will battle it out at the US open for the Oval Office. Although Harris entered the race with a decent lead, the gap has narrowed considerably in recent days, and the outcome of the election is now uncertain, but Trump retains a small lead. The US stock indices, US dollar currency pairs, and gold could be very volatile throughout the day and night as the votes are counted. On a separate note, New Zealand will release its quarterly unemployment report. A rise in unemployment could put additional pressure on the NZD.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– China Standing Committee National People’s Congress;
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Unemployment Rate at 23:45 (GMT+2).
– US Presidential Election (All Day);
– US Congressional Elections (All Day).

Wednesday, November 06

On Wednesday, the market will take a breather after a busy Tuesday. However, stock indices and currency pairs with the US dollar may still be volatile amid counting votes in the US. Among the events on Wednesday, we can highlight the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting and data on crude oil inventories.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– China Standing Committee National People’s Congress;
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

Thursday, November 07

Thursday is expected to be a volatile day. The Bank of England will meet for its regular monetary policy meeting in the first half of the day. The BoE is expected to cut the rate by 0.25% because of lower inflation and weak economic indicators. It will be negative for the GBP. In the second half of the day, the ball will be passed to the FOMC, which is also expected to cut the rate by 0.25%. The non-farm payrolls report released on Friday showed that job growth nearly stopped in October, reinforcing expectations for a smaller rate cut. We should also not forget about the press conference, where Jerome Powell will give hints about further steps of the US Fed. Hints of more aggressive rate cuts could weigh heavily on the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– China Standing Committee National People’s Congress;
– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Rate Statement at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (m/m) at 17:15 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
– UK FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2).

Friday, November 08

Friday’s main event will be the Canadian labor market date. Unemployment is expected to continue rising, increasing the likelihood of more aggressive rate cuts from the BoC. It will be a negative scenario for the Canadian dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2024.11.04

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