Week’s main events (October 14 – October 18)

Also, the focus for investors will be on the consumer price index in the major economies (Eurozone, United Kingdom, Canada, New Zealand, and Japan). The European Central Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting, where further rate cuts are expected. There will also be plenty of economic statistics on China, with Q3 GDP data worth a special look. Geopolitical tensions will also remain at the forefront this week. Any hints of further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will directly impact the US dollar, gold, and oil prices. Investors should also remember the 3rd quarter US earnings season.

Monday, October 14

Weak volatility is expected on Monday due to a bank holiday weekend in the United States, Canada, and Japan. In the European session, it is better to look closer at the pairs with the Swiss franc, as the report on industrial inflation will be published.

Main events of the day:

– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, October 15

On Tuesday, the main event of the day will be the inflation data in Canada. The overall inflation rate is expected to remain at 2.0%, while core inflation is also at 1.5%. Any downside inflation surprise will pressure the Canadian dollar and vice versa. Also, traders shouldn’t miss the UK labor market data, which the Bank of England will scrutinize to plan the future trajectory of interest rates. A strong labor market will positively impact the pound sterling, as it allows the Bank of England to pause at the next meeting.

Main events of the day:

– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Daly Speaks (m/m) at 18:30 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, October 16

On Wednesday, all investors will be focused on the UK and New Zealand inflation data. Analysts forecast the UK’s overall inflation rate to hit its target of 2.0%, while core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) will fall slightly from 3.6% to 3.5%. Any sign of inflation resilience will prove positive for GBP. New Zealand publishes inflation data once a quarter, not once a month like other countries. Analysts expect inflation to fall from 3.3% to 2.0% yearly, increasing the probability that the RBNZ will cut the rate by 0.5% again at the next meeting. This would be negative for the NZD.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 00:45 (GMT+3);
– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 21:40 (GMT+3).

Thursday, October 17

On Thursday, investors will focus on the ECB’s monetary policy meeting. A rate cut at this meeting is a done deal and is likely already priced in. Therefore, it is worth focusing on the politicians’ plans for the next December meeting. A hint of another rate cut will put pressure on the euro. If the politicians refrain from forecasting, the euro may benefit from it. In the US session, traders will await the US retail sales report. A strong report almost always supports the dollar. But this time, a modest 0.3% increase is expected. It should also be noted that the reports on crude oil and natural gas inventories will be released 30 minutes apart due to a day off at the beginning of the week.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

Friday, October 18

The main event to watch on Friday is the Japan National Consumer Price Index. Economists forecast inflation to fall from 2.8% to 2.3% annually. This will be extremely negative for the JPY, as it will put the Bank of Japan further away from the process of normalization of monetary policy. Also, a batch of economic data from China will be released on Friday. China’s third-quarter GDP data will be the main report. Policymakers expressed confidence in achieving the target annual growth rate of around 5% despite a weak second quarter and expectations of a slight improvement in the third quarter. Several speeches by FOMC officials are expected, which may cause an increase in volatility in US indices.

Main events of the day:

– Japan National Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.10.14

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