{"id":11500,"date":"2025-09-29T06:29:57","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T06:29:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/?p=11500"},"modified":"2025-09-29T06:29:59","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T06:29:59","slug":"weekly-overview-2025-09-29","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pt\/analytics\/weekly-overview-2025-09-29\/","title":{"rendered":"Week&#8217;s main events (September 29 \u2013 October 03)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"ag-base_page ag-m-format-container\">\n<h1 class=\"ag-base_title-page\">Week&#8217;s main events (September 29 \u2013 October 03)<\/h1>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics-page ag-market-overview-page\">\n<p class=\"ag-analytics_text\">This week&#8217;s main event will be the release of data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States. The report will show how quickly the central bank will have to cut rates in the coming months. Economists expect the economy to have added 51,000 jobs last month, slightly more than the 22,000 jobs added in August. A weak report will increase the likelihood of a faster rate cut, which could negatively impact the US dollar. Other important labor market data includes the ADP employment report and JOLTS results.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, investors will be wary of the risk of a US government shutdown as the new fiscal year begins. In Europe, fresh inflation data for the Eurozone, as well as CPI release for Switzerland, will be available. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its scheduled monetary policy meeting, where no changes are expected. There will also be a wealth of macroeconomic statistics on manufacturing and services PMI data, providing insight into global economic trends in key economies. The OPEC+ meeting and oil inventory prints may move energy markets and CAD.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Monday, September 29<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">\n<p>The week opens light: the US Pending Home Sales (previous 0.7% y\/y, forecast 1.9% y\/y) print at 17:00 will be the day\u2019s only market-moving US release. A softer print would reinforce concerns about the housing sector and consumer demand, mildly weighing on the USD and homebuilders. A surprise upside would lend short-term support to the USD and equity names tied to housing demand.\/div&gt;<\/p>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 US Pending Home Sales (m\/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Tuesday, September 30<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">Tuesday is a busy global data day. The RBA decision is the event of the day &#8211; markets expect the RBA to hold the cash rate, so the reaction will hinge on guidance: a dovish tilt would likely soften the AUD, while a neutral\/hawkish tone would support the AUD. China PMIs and Japan retail sales (previous 0.3% y\/y, forecast 0.5% y\/y) will set the tone for Asian risk assets and commodity demand. Stronger Chinese PMI readings would support commodity-linked FX and risk appetite, while weaker PMIs would pressure the CNY and regional equities. European retail sales and German CPI prints during the day will move EUR crosses. The increase in the German CPI is expected to support the EUR. Finally, Powell\u2019s speech in the evening can amplify intraday moves if he signals anything material on the Fed outlook. It\u2019s a bank holiday in Canada.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Japan Retail Sales (m\/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Australia RBA Cash Rate at 07:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Australia RBA Rate Statement at 07:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Australia RBA Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German Retail Sales (m\/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK GDP (m\/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m\/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German Unemployment Rate (m\/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Mexico Inflation Rate (m\/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German Consumer Price Index (m\/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:50 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Chicago PMI (m\/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US JOLTs Job Openings (m\/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US CB Consumer Confidence (m\/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Wednesday, October 01<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">\n<p>On Wednesday, an important OPEC+ meeting is scheduled to take place. Signals of additional output increases would cap oil prices and pressure energy currencies. A decision to withhold supply increases (or geopolitical supply shocks) would push oil prices (WTI, BRENT) up and support CAD. Do not forget about crude oil inventories, which are published every Wednesday and show the increase\/decrease in inventories compared to the previous week. This report influences short-term trends in the oil market. US ADP (previous 54K, forecast 40K) and ISM manufacturing data (previous 48.7, forecast 49) are also worth paying attention to, as they are important domestic indicators ahead of Friday&#8217;s employment data release and will influence the dynamics of the US dollar and Treasury bonds. It\u2019s a bank holiday in China.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Australia Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (m\/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (m\/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Australia Retail Sales (m\/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland Retail Sales (m\/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m\/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 OPEC+ meeting at 13:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m\/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Canada Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Crude Oil Reserves (w\/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Thursday, October 02<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">Thursday&#8217;s main report will be Swiss inflation data. Swiss inflation (previous 0.2% y\/y, forecast 0.1% y\/y) and KOF indicators can move CHF down, but the bigger market focus will be whether US claims show labour market resilience. A pickup in claims (previous 218K, forecast 223K) would be USD-negative. Natural gas storage data can move gas prices (XNG) and related European energy pricing.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Australia Trade Balance (m\/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m\/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m\/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Initial Jobless Claims (w\/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Natural Gas Storage (w\/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Friday, October 03<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">The most important Friday release is the Nonfarm Payrolls report. This data can trigger increased market volatility, and the indicator is also taken into account by the Fed when adjusting monetary policy. Economists expect the US economy to have added 50,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.3% and wage growth continuing to be strong. A strong jobs report will reduce the total number of rate cut points this year, which may give temporary support to the US dollar. A weak report, on the contrary, will indicate weakness in the labor market and increase the likelihood of a faster rate cut. Also watch the US ISM Services, Eurozone, and UK services PMIs. Service-sector strength globally would reinforce the case for sticky inflation, whereas weakness would favour safe-havens. It\u2019s a bank holiday in China.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Australia Services PMI (m\/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan Unemployment Rate (m\/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan Services PMI (m\/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan BoJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 04:05 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German Services PMI (m\/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Services PMI (m\/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Services PMI (m\/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Producer Price Index (m\/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:40 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Nonfarm Payrolls (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Unemployment Rate (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 16:20 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US ISM Services PMI (m\/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"ag-analytics_text\">by <span class=\"author vcard\"><span class=\"fn\">JustMarkets<\/span><\/span>, 2025.09.29<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"ag-base-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/secure.justmarkets.eu\/pt\/register\/?sl=1\">Open Account<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week&#8217;s main events (September 29 \u2013 October 03) This week&#8217;s main event will be the release of data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States. The report will show how quickly the central bank will have to cut rates in the coming months. Economists expect the economy &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[191,334,340],"tags":[],"featured_image_src":"","blog_images":{"medium":"","large":""},"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"ams_acf":[{"key":"icon","label":"Icon","value":false}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11500"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11500"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11500\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11507,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11500\/revisions\/11507"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}