{"id":10936,"date":"2025-05-12T06:13:23","date_gmt":"2025-05-12T06:13:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/uncategorized\/weekly-overview-2025-05-12\/"},"modified":"2025-05-12T06:13:47","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T06:13:47","slug":"weekly-overview-2025-05-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pl\/analytics\/weekly-overview-2025-05-12\/","title":{"rendered":"Week&#8217;s main events (May 12 \u2013 May 16)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"ag-base_page ag-m-format-container\">\n<h1 class=\"ag-base_title-page\">Week&#8217;s main events (May 12 \u2013 May 16)<\/h1>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics-page ag-market-overview-page\">\n<p class=\"ag-analytics_text\">This week&#8217;s market focus centers on key macroeconomic events, including potential tariff discussions between the United States and China, the Federal Reserve&#8217;s interest rate decision, and the Bank of England&#8217;s policy meeting. With the US labor market&#8217;s resilience, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is broadly expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.50%. In contrast, the consensus among analysts points toward a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, reflecting signs of moderating inflation and slowing economic activity. The Norges Bank will also convene for its scheduled policy meeting; however, no changes to the current rate settings are anticipated. Market participants will closely monitor inflation figures from Switzerland, Mexico, and Norway for further signals on regional price dynamics. Canada is set to release labor market data and trade balance figures, while additional trade statistics are expected from Germany, the United States, and China.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Monday, May 12<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">Monday is expected to be relatively quiet in terms of market-moving events. However, investors will monitor the release of the updated US Federal Budget Statement, which may exert a modest influence on the US dollar.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 US Fed Monthly Budget Statement (m\/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Tuesday, May 13<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">Tuesday will bring a wave of economic data across multiple regions, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) taking center stage. Headline inflation is forecast to ease slightly to 2.4% year-over-year from 2.5%, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to hold steady at 2.8% y\/y. A softer inflation print may weigh on the US dollar, reinforcing expectations of a dovish policy stance from the Federal Reserve. In the UK, labor market data will be released, with forecasts pointing to a potential cooling. Signs of weakening in employment conditions could increase the probability of a more aggressive rate-cutting path by the Bank of England, posing a downside risk for the British pound.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (m\/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Australia NAB Business Confidence (m\/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Average Earnings Index (m\/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Claimant Count Change (m\/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Unemployment Rate (m\/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Trade Balance (m\/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m\/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m\/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Consumer Price Index (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (m\/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Wednesday, May 14<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">Wednesday will focus on releasing Australia\u2019s quarterly Wage Price Index, a key indicator of inflationary pressures. Strong wage growth typically supports the Australian dollar by reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy. During the US session, attention will shift to the EIA crude oil inventory report. The oil market has seen heightened volatility recently, driven by unexpected production increases from select OPEC+ members. A drawdown in US inventories could further support oil prices, which posted a gain of over 4% last week.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Japan Producer Price Index (m\/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Australia Wage Price Index (q\/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Crude Oil Reserves (w\/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Canada Annual Budget Release (Tentative).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Thursday, May 15<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">Thursday is set to be eventful, with key releases including Australia\u2019s employment data, GDP figures from the UK and Eurozone, and a monetary policy decision from Mexico\u2019s central bank (Banxico). In Australia, a decline in employment is anticipated, which could increase the probability of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia as early as next week. In the UK, GDP growth is forecast to remain flat at 0.0%, raising concerns about potential economic contraction, which would likely weigh on the pound. Meanwhile, Eurozone GDP is expected to rebound with a 0.4% gain; however, any downside surprise could pressure the euro. In Mexico, economic softness coupled with a firm peso may provide Banxico with scope for another 50-basis-point rate cut. Market pricing implies a terminal rate near 7.25% over the next year. Thursday also brings key US data and policy insights. Retail sales figures will be closely watched for signals on consumer spending strength, a critical component of US economic momentum. Additionally, markets will analyze remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for any clues on the future policy trajectory.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Australia Unemployment Rate (m\/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK GDP (m\/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Industrial Production (m\/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland Producer Price Index (m\/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone GDP (q\/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Industrial Production (m\/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Retail Sales (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Producer Price Index (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Initial Jobless Claims (w\/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 15:40 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Industrial Production (m\/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Natural Gas Storage (w\/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 22:00 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Friday, May 16<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">On Friday, Japan will release its preliminary Q1 2025 GDP data. According to Bloomberg\u2019s median forecast, the economy is expected to expand by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, up from 2.9%. A stronger-than-expected print may support the Japanese yen, reinforcing expectations of additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan later this year. During the US session, attention will turn to the University of Michigan\u2019s consumer sentiment survey, particularly the inflation expectations component. An uptick in inflation expectations could support the US dollar by bolstering the case for a more hawkish Fed position.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Japan GDP (q\/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan Industrial Production (m\/m) at 07:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland Industrial Production (m\/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Trade Balance (m\/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Building Permits (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Housing Starts (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m\/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"ag-analytics_text\">by <span class=\"author vcard\"><span class=\"fn\">JustMarkets<\/span><\/span>, 2025.05.12<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"ag-base-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/secure.justmarkets.eu\/pl\/register\/?sl=1\">Open Account<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week&#8217;s main events (May 12 \u2013 May 16) This week&#8217;s market focus centers on key macroeconomic events, including potential tariff discussions between the United States and China, the Federal Reserve&#8217;s interest rate decision, and the Bank of England&#8217;s policy meeting. With the US labor market&#8217;s resilience, the Federal Open Market &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[193,330,338],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analytics","category-market-overview","category-weekly-overview"],"featured_image_src":"","blog_images":{"medium":"","large":""},"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"ams_acf":[{"key":"icon","label":"Icon","value":false}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10936"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10936\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10942,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10936\/revisions\/10942"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}