{"id":11140,"date":"2025-06-30T06:33:17","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T06:33:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/?p=11140"},"modified":"2025-06-30T06:33:18","modified_gmt":"2025-06-30T06:33:18","slug":"weekly-overview-2025-06-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/it\/analytics\/weekly-overview-2025-06-30\/","title":{"rendered":"Week&#8217;s main events (June 30 \u2013 July 04)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"ag-base_page ag-m-format-container\">\n<h1 class=\"ag-base_title-page\">Week&#8217;s main events (June 30 \u2013 July 04)<\/h1>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics-page ag-market-overview-page\">\n<p class=\"ag-analytics_text\">This week, investor attention will be firmly fixed on developments in trade negotiations between the United States and its key trading partners as the July 9 deadline approaches. This marks the end of the 90-day tariff moratorium initiated in April, raising the stakes for potential policy shifts and market responses. Simultaneously, markets will closely watch the Central Bank Forum, where leading policymakers are expected to provide fresh insights into the outlook for global economic growth and the trajectory of monetary policy. On the data front, the US employment report is anticipated to indicate a continued cooling of labor market conditions. Other significant releases include the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, as well as the US, Canadian, and Australian trade balance figures, all of which will contribute to shaping investor sentiment and central bank expectations. Additionally, inflation data from the Eurozone and Switzerland will be released, further influencing investor sentiment and central bank expectations.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Monday, June 30<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">Monday&#8217;s session will begin with a heavy focus on Asia, as investors closely monitor key economic activity data from China. The official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs are expected to provide critical insight into the momentum of the world\u2019s second-largest economy amid ongoing concerns over sluggish domestic demand and weak industrial performance. These figures could influence Asian indices. German inflation will be the key data point in the European session . A modest uptick from 2.1% to 2.2% year-on-year is forecast, and any surprise could impact ECB rate expectations.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Japan Industrial Production (m\/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German Retail Sales (m\/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK GDP (q\/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m\/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German Inflation Rate (m\/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Chicago PMI (m\/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Tuesday, July 01<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">On Tuesday, traders should not miss essential manufacturing PMI data in the main economies. It serves as a leading indicator of economic health. Generally, if the actual data is better than expected, it is positive for the currency. Also, Tuesday will be dominated by a wave of central bank commentary as top monetary policymakers gather for the highly anticipated Central Bank Forum. Their insights on inflation dynamics, policy trajectories, and economic resilience will be crucial in shaping interest rate expectations in the second half of the year. In the US session, attention will shift to the JOLTS Job Openings Report. A decline from 7.391 million to an expected 7.1 million openings would reinforce a softer employment trend and potentially bolster expectations for Fed policy easing later this year.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers (m\/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers (m\/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan Consumer Confidence (m\/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland Retail Sales (m\/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German Unemployment Rate (m\/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Inflation Rate (m\/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speech Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan BoJ Ueda Lagarde Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Fed Chair Powell Speech Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US JOLTS Job Openings (m\/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Wednesday, July 02<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">Midweek trading will bring a sharper focus on labor market conditions in both the Eurozone and the United States. The Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 6.2%, maintaining a historically low level that continues to support the ECB\u2019s cautious policy stance. Later in the day, the health of the US labor market will come into sharper view with the release of the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. After a notably weak 37K reading last month, markets anticipate a rebound to 90K. However, any downside surprise could reinforce signs of a broader labor market slowdown, influencing expectations ahead of Thursday\u2019s official payrolls report.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Australia Retail Sales (m\/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m\/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m\/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Canada Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:15 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Crude Oil Reserves (w\/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Thursday, July 03<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">Thursday will be pivotal for global markets, with a strong macroeconomic calendar headlined by the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which has been moved forward by one day due to the Independence Day holiday on July 4. Markets will be watching closely to assess the pace of labor market softening. Consensus expects job creation to slow to 120K from the previous 139K, reinforcing a narrative of gradual cooling. It\u2019s a negative scenario for the US dollar. In Europe, attention will also be focused on inflation dynamics, with Switzerland&#8217;s CPI expected to show a rare decline (-0.1% forecast vs. previous +0.1% y\/y), which could influence the SNB&#8217;s rate outlooks. The SNB recently brought the rate to 0%, and inflation going below zero could increase the likelihood of a rate cut into negative territory.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Australia Services PMI (m\/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan Services PMI (m\/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Australia Trade Balance (m\/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Caixin Services PMI (m\/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland Inflation Rate (m\/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German Services PMI (m\/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Services PMI (m\/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Services PMI (m\/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Nonfarm Payrolls (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Unemployment Rate (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Initial Jobless Claims (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Trade Balance (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Canada Trade Balance (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US ISM Services PMI (m\/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Natural Gas Storage (w\/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Friday, July 04<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">Friday is set to be a low-volatility session, with limited market-moving events on the calendar and US financial markets closed in observance of Independence Day. As a result, trading volumes are expected to be thin, and directional conviction may be subdued across major asset classes. The spotlight will fall on the Eurozone Producer Price Index. A notable deceleration is anticipated, with the year-over-year figure forecast to fall to 0.3% from the previous 0.7%. If confirmed, this would further support expectations for an ECB rate cut later this year by signaling continued easing in pipeline inflation pressures.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m\/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Producer Price Index (m\/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"ag-analytics_text\">by <span class=\"author vcard\"><span class=\"fn\">JustMarkets<\/span><\/span>, 2025.06.30<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"ag-base-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/secure.justmarkets.eu\/it\/register\/?sl=1\">Open Account<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week&#8217;s main events (June 30 \u2013 July 04) This week, investor attention will be firmly fixed on developments in trade negotiations between the United States and its key trading partners as the July 9 deadline approaches. This marks the end of the 90-day tariff moratorium initiated in April, raising the &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[187,329,339],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analytics","category-market-overview","category-weekly-overview"],"featured_image_src":"","blog_images":{"medium":"","large":""},"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"ams_acf":[{"key":"icon","label":"Icon","value":false}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11140"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11140\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11147,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11140\/revisions\/11147"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}