Week’s main events (December 22 – December 26)
This week will be relatively quiet due to the Christmas holidays. During this period, bankers and investors typically go on vacation, so market volatility between Christmas and New Year’s Day generally remains below average. Nevertheless, it is not worth completely ignoring the macro background – market participants will focus on GDP data releases from the US, UK, and Canada, as well as on the minutes from the latest meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan. Of additional interest are economic indicators from Japan, scheduled for release on Friday and could provide the markets with new benchmarks. In China, investor attention will be focused on the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (December 22-27), where bills on ecology, national development, and foreign trade will be discussed.
On Monday, investors’ attention will be on the People’s Bank of China’s meeting. It is expected that the PBoC will keep rates unchanged. However, any hints of policy stimulus will be accompanied by a rise in Chinese indices and correlated instruments. Also on Monday, traders will be assessing the final UK GDP data. A modest 0.1% growth is expected, an improvement over the preliminary 0.1%. This could support the pound in the short term, but if the data comes in worse than expected, an opposite reaction should be anticipated.
- – China Loan Prime Rate at 03:15 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
- – Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2). – HK50 (LOW)
Several events are scheduled for Tuesday that deserve attention: during the Asian session, market participants will analyze the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes and Singapore’s inflation data, while during the American session, the focus will shift to the publication of US and Canadian GDP figures. Weak economic momentum is expected in Canada, with the GDP forecast at 0.3% versus 0.2% a month earlier, which could exert pressure on the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, a strong US GDP report of 3.2% is expected, which, if confirmed, could bolster the US dollar’s position.
- – Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
- – Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+2); – SGD (MED)
- – US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – US GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2); – USD (LOW)
- – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)
On Wednesday, most financial exchanges will have a short working day. Early close will be in Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It’s a bank holiday in Germany, Norway, Switzerland, and Sweden. On Wednesday, it is advisable to focus primarily on short-term intraday positions, as sustainable trends are unlikely given reduced liquidity. Among macroeconomic publications, primary attention should be paid to US initial jobless claims data: a decline would signal continued labor market resilience and could support the dollar. Additionally, investors should evaluate statistics on crude oil and natural gas inventories, as these reports traditionally have a significant impact on the pricing of WTI and XNG.
- – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – US Crude Oil Inventories (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2); – WTI (HIGH)
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 19:00 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)
Because of Christmas, it’s a bank holiday in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, and most European countries. Only the Asian markets will work. However, no important events are expected, so volatility will be very low. On this day, it is best to refrain from trading.
- – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2). – JPY (LOW)
by , 2025.12.22