Week’s main events (November 17 – November 21)

Last week will be remembered as the end of the longest government shutdown in US history. This week, investors’ main focus will be on inflation data in Canada, Japan, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom. In the area of monetary policy, the minutes of the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are expected to be released, which may clarify the trajectory of future interest rate decisions. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will hold monetary policy meetings, with no surprises expected. The focus will also be on preliminary PMIs in the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, Australia, and the United States. In addition, Japan and Switzerland will present their third-quarter GDP estimates. The corporate reporting block will also be in the spotlight. Markets are awaiting Nvidia’s results, which will help reassess the current hype around artificial intelligence, as well as reports from major retailers Walmart and Home Depot, which will provide key signals about consumer demand.

Monday, November 17

On Monday, investors will assess third-quarter GDP data for Japan and Switzerland. Japan’s quarterly GDP is expected to show a negative result, which could weigh on the yen (JPY). Switzerland is expected to report quarterly growth of 0.3%, up from 0.1% in the previous quarter. This could provide additional support for the franc (CHF), which strengthened to a 2011 high against the US dollar on Friday, driven by a tariff agreement between the US and Switzerland. During the US session, traders will assess Canada’s consumer inflation report. Inflation indicators, including the median, are expected to remain at current levels. An increase in volatility is to be expected. A decline in inflationary pressures could negatively impact the CAD.

Main events of the day:

– Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, November 18

Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day. During the Asian session, the RBA will publish the minutes of its last meeting, at which it was decided to keep the interest rate at 3.6%. The minutes are likely to show that the RBA is maintaining a cautious approach and focusing on data, closely monitoring inflation, demand, and labor market trends.

Main events of the day:

– Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Producer Price Index (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, November 19

On Wednesday, traders will be watching the UK inflation report, the last before the budget is published on November 26. Headline inflation is expected to fall from 3.8% to 3.6% year-on-year, while core inflation is expected to fall from 3.5% to 3.4% year-on-year. Easing inflationary pressures, coupled with budget and tax uncertainty, will increase the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in November, which could weigh on the British pound (GBP). Also on Wednesday, the latest FOMC minutes will be published, which may reinforce the recognition of a wide range of official opinions amid the lack of official data on the labor market and inflation due to the shutdown. This may prompt investors to exercise caution, leading to a short-term sell-off of risky assets.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).

Thursday, November 20

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will hold a monetary policy meeting on Thursday. It is expected to remain unchanged, but any surprise, such as a rate cut or additional stimulus, will support Chinese indices CHA50 and HK50. There is a small chance that the US labor market report, namely the main Non-Farm Payrolls report, will be published on Thursday, if the Bureau of Labor Statistics manages to prepare all the necessary reports. In this case, the market may react with extreme volatility, as this report will reflect statistics for two months at once.

Main events of the day:

– China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Trade Balance at 23:45 (GMT+2).

Friday, November 21

On Friday, investors will focus on China’s macroeconomic data. Weak data is expected, which could negatively impact Asian indices, especially the CHA50 and HK50. During the European session, traders will assess the Eurozone’s quarterly GDP report. Modest growth of 0.2% is expected. The report on US producer inflation and retail sales will be published later if the government ends the shutdown by Friday.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan National Core CPI at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Mexico GDP (q/q) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 14:40 (GMT+2);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US UoM Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2025.11.17

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