Week’s main events (July 29 – August 02)

This week will be a busy week for the markets. This week’s main events will be data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States, as well as interest rate meetings of the central banks of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan. There is an 88% probability that the US Fed will leave rates unchanged this week. Wednesday’s Fed statement will put the Nonfarm payrolls report under increased scrutiny. Economists expect the US economy added 177,000 jobs in July, down from 206,000 the previous month. The odds on a Bank of England rate cut have not changed significantly: the probability of an August rate cut remains at 40%. As for the Bank of Japan — swaps estimate the odds of a 10 bps rate hike from the BOJ at 68% for the July 31 meeting. Australia, Switzerland, and the Eurozone will have updated inflation data. A widespread reduction in price pressures is forecast. Earnings data from major technology companies are expected to be released in the coming days, and any disappointments could further upset the markets. Companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN) will be reported.

Monday, July 29

No important news is expected on Monday, so volatility will be weak.

Tuesday, July 30

On Tuesday, traders should pay attention to JOLTs US labor market report. A decrease in open vacancies is expected, which may negatively affect Friday’s main report. Also, Germany’s inflation and GDP report will be released on Tuesday. Inflation data is expected to be unchanged, while GDP may show a negative trend.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German GDP (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– German CPI (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, July 31

Wednesday will be full of significant events. There will be 2 essential events during the Asian session. In Australia, the inflation report will be published (expected to decline from 3.8% to 3.6% in annualized terms). In Japan, the central bank will hold a monetary policy meeting, with a high probability (68%) of a rate hike. This could further strengthen the yen. At the European session, it is worth paying attention to the Eurozone inflation report. Price pressure is expected to decrease from 2.9% to 2.8% YoY, increasing the probability of a rate cut from the ECB. Investors will closely follow the Fed meeting during the US session. With a high probability (88%) the Fed will leave the rate unchanged, but most likely, the US central bank will pave the way for a September rate cut. This could put pressure on the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Quarterly Outlook Report (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Statement (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Press Conference (m/m) at 21:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, August 01

On Thursday, traders will mainly focus on the Interest Rate Decisions from the Bank of England. Investors are divided over whether policymakers will cut rates for the first time since 2020. The uncertainty ahead of the meeting is higher than usual, as key central bank officials have not spoken publicly for more than two months. Also, on Thursday, data on business activity in the manufacturing sector of key economies will be released. This data is a good indication of the sector’s health in a period of high interest rates. It’s a bank holiday in Switzerland.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, August 02

The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed also considers this indicator to adjust monetary policy. Weaker-than-expected jobs data may improve sentiment on Wall Street to some extent but hurt the dollar, as it will reinforce aggressive bets for a rate cut.

Main events of the day:

– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.07.29

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