Week’s main events (June 01 – June 05)
This week will be a moment of truth for global financial markets, as investors will have to assess large‑scale macroeconomic data from major economies against the backdrop of a fragile diplomatic process between Washington and Tehran. The main event for US markets will be the traditional “labor market week,” during which the JOLTS and ADP reports will be released in sequence. This entire macroeconomic mosaic will conclude with Friday’s publication of the official employment report, Non‑Farm Payrolls, which, together with the ISM business activity indices, will show the true extent of the US economy’s resilience amid high interest rates. The international statistics block will be no less eventful, as the Eurozone will release fresh May inflation data and April retail sales, which will directly influence the ECB’s determination ahead of the June rate meeting. At the same time, China will publish both official and independent PMI business activity indices, while Australia will reveal the dynamics of its GDP for the past quarter.
On Monday, investor attention will center on the release of manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from major economies. Typically, an increase in the PMI is associated with economic expansion and tends to support the national currency’s strength, while a decline may signal contraction and weigh on its value.
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- – RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
- – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW)
- – Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3) – CHF (MED)
- – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (MED)
- – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
- – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
On Tuesday, the Eurozone Flash CPI is the morning’s focal point, with headline inflation projected to hold stubbornly at 3.3% year-over-year (up from April’s 3.0% peak), driven by a massive 10.8% surge in supply-constrained energy inputs. While core inflation remains relatively well-behaved near 2.2%-2.4%, the headline heat severely restricts the European Central Bank’s capacity for near-term monetary easing, cementing a defensive floor for the Euro (EUR) against major pairs. Additionally, traders should closely monitor the US Job Openings. In recent months, this report has triggered notable market volatility, underscoring its growing significance in shaping investor sentiment and guiding Federal Reserve policy expectations. The market consensus expects a slight decline in job openings to the 8.2-8.4 million range; any unexpected surge would reinforce the narrative of U.S. resilience, providing the U.S. Dollar (DXY) with immediate buying pressure.
- – Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW)
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- – UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)
- – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Wednesday’s session delivers a chaotic mix of major data points, highly concentrated around Australian growth data and crucial forward-looking US metrics. In the morning, Australia’s Q1 GDP will be closely scrutinized as a gauge of whether the domestic economy can withstand the RBA’s aggressive return to higher interest rates following its recent hikes to 4.35%. Output is projected to moderate toward 0.4% quarter-over-quarter (translating to a slower 1.4% year-ended pace) as a declining household saving ratio and weak private demand drag on activity. In the afternoon, the macro lens shifts squarely to the United States ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The dual release of the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI will heavily impact interest rate expectations. Analysts are looking for a steady services expansion near 53.0. If the index breaks significantly higher, fueled by sticky service-sector wages and resilient consumer demand, the US dollar (DXY) will see an immediate structural wave of buying pressure.
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- – Australia GDP (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
- – RatingDog China Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)
- – Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 11:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (LOW)
- – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
- – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
04
On Thursday, in the morning, Australia’s Trade Balance takes center stage as the market looks to see if the country can pull out of its stunning March dive into a trade deficit (A$-1.84 billion) – its first trade gap since 2017. Massive imports of capital goods drove that deficit to fund AI data centers, while a sharp drop in global gold prices also contributed. If the export numbers fail to snap back into a healthy surplus, Governor Michele Bullock’s speech shortly after will take on a much more complex tone, forcing the Australian dollar (AUD) to lean entirely on domestic inflation dynamics rather than trade resilience to keep its hawkish edge. In Europe, the macroeconomic landscape is looking increasingly heavy. The Switzerland Consumer Price Index is projected to come in soft at around 0.6%-0.8% year-over-year, indicating that despite high global energy costs, the Swiss franc’s structural safe-haven strength is effectively insulating domestic prices.
- – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
- – Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 08:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (LOW)
- – Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – SEK (MED)
- – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (HIGH)
- – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3) – CHF (MED)
- – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)
- – UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 18:40 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)
Traders should also monitor Canada’s employment report, where the unemployment rate is expected to remain sticky near its six-month high of 6.9%. Weaker labor market readings could place additional pressure on the Canadian dollar. Japan’s Average Cash Earnings will set the early tone for the yen (JPY), as any acceleration in wage growth will reinforce the structural justification for the BoJ to stay on its rate-normalization path regardless of Western market turmoil.
- – Japan Average Cash Earnings (y/y) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU (HIGH)
- – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU (HIGH)
- – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)
- – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
by , 2025.06.01