Avvertenza di Rischio: I CFD sono strumenti complessi e presentano un rischio significativo di perdere denaro rapidamente a causa della leva finanziaria. Il 71.12% dei conti degli investitori al dettaglio perdono denaro a causa del trading di CFD con questo fornitore. È importante valutare se si comprende il funzionamento dei CFD e se ci si può permettere di correre questo alto rischio di perdere il proprio denaro.

71.12% dei conti al dettaglio di CFD perdono denaro.

Avvertenza di Rischio: I CFD sono strumenti complessi e presentano un rischio significativo di perdere denaro rapidamente a causa della leva finanziaria. Il 71.12% dei conti degli investitori al dettaglio perdono denaro a causa del trading di CFD con questo fornitore. È importante valutare se si comprende il funzionamento dei CFD e se ci si può permettere di correre questo alto rischio di perdere il proprio denaro.

Week’s main events (May 11 – May 15)

The situation in the Middle East will remain one of the key drivers for global markets, as last week’s ceasefire between the United States and Iran came under threat several times. Investors will continue to monitor any signs of further escalation or, conversely, progress toward a diplomatic settlement. Among major economic events, the primary focus will be on US data releases for inflation, retail sales, and industrial production, amid ongoing divisions within the Federal Reserve over the future policy path. In Europe, markets will assess the United Kingdom’s GDP and trade figures, industrial production across the euro area, and Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. China will publish its inflation data, while the Bank of Japan is expected to provide additional signals on its future monetary policy stance. Corporate earnings from major international companies in the technology, financial, and industrial sectors will also play an important role in shaping market dynamics.

Monday, May 11

The China CPI and PPI releases are the day’s high-stakes events for the Asia-Pacific region. While headline CPI is expected to stabilize near 1.0%, the real story lies in the PPI, which is forecasted to climb toward 1.5%-1.8%. This divergence is critical: it suggests that while Chinese consumers are still hesitant (keeping CPI low), the “Iran war shock” is driving up industrial costs (PPI). If the PPI beats expectations significantly, it will signal that China is “exporting inflation” to the rest of the world, potentially complicating the Fed’s and ECB’s plans to cut rates later this year. For traders, a hot PPI could boost the Offshore yuan (CNH) but weigh on Chinese Equities (HK50) as manufacturing margins are squeezed. In Europe, Norway’s Inflation Rate will be closely watched following Norges Bank’s decision last week to raise rates to 4.25%. With oil prices hovering near $100, Norway is experiencing intense “imported inflation.” A reading above the projected 3.2% would cement expectations for another 25 bps hike by year-end, likely keeping the NOK strong against a struggling Euro.

Main events of the day:
  • – China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
  • – China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
  • – Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) HIGH – NOK (MED)
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Tuesday, May 12

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the day’s undisputed heavyweight. Market forecasts have turned hawkish, with headline inflation projected to jump to 3.7%-3.9% year-over-year. This expected spike is largely fueled by the “energy lag” – the delayed impact of the Iran war-fuel crisis, which saw oil prices peak near $110 in March and April. If the reading prints at 3.9% or higher, it will effectively kill off any remaining expectations for a Fed rate cut in 2026, likely triggering a violent rally in the US dollar (DXY) and a deep sell-off in US Treasuries. Conversely, a “cool” surprise below 3.4% would suggest the energy shock was less persistent than feared, potentially sparking a massive relief rally in the S&P 500.

In Europe, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment will provide a look at the Eurozone’s largest economy. Following April’s plunge to a three-year low of 17.2, analysts are bracing for a further slide toward 19.1 as fears of long-term energy shortages and “stagflation” weigh on investment. If the ZEW index misses significantly, it will reinforce the “sick man of Europe” narrative, keeping the EUR/USD under pressure regardless of US data.

Main events of the day:
  • – Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (LOW)
  • – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
  • – German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW)
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
Wednesday, May 13

On Wednesday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will take on great importance. Following Tuesday’s CPI, the PPI will reveal how much of the energy spike is still stuck in the “pipeline.” March saw a massive 15.7% monthly jump in gasoline and a 42% surge in diesel costs. Forecasts for May expect headline PPI to rise 0.5% m/m, but any higher print would suggest that businesses are still facing extreme “upstream” pressure. If core PPI (excluding food/energy) also accelerates, it confirms that inflation is no longer just an energy story but is becoming systemic, likely cementing the USD’s dominance. Earlier, Australia’s Wage Price Index (WPI) will be the primary driver for the AUD. With the RBA recently hiking rates to 4.35% to curb expectations, a WPI print above the forecasted 3.4% y/y would signal a “wage-price spiral” risk. This would put a 4.60% rate hike firmly on the table for June. Conversely, New Zealand’s Inflation Expectations (forecasted to remain sticky near 2.5%-3.0%) will determine if the NZD can sustain its recent recovery or if the “recession vs. inflation” trade will drag it back down.

Main events of the day:
  • – Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
  • – New Zealand Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (MED)
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
Thursday, May 14

The UK GDP figures for March and for the first quarter will be the main event of the morning. Although February posted a solid 0.5% expansion, March data are expected to show a sharp slowdown to 0.1-0.2%. The reason lies in the surge in energy prices, which pushed the UK consumer price index (CPI) up to 3.3% in March. If monthly GDP prints flat (0.0%) or negative, it will confirm that a “cost‑of‑living crisis 2.0” is weighing on the economic recovery. For GBP/USD, weak GDP and a decline in industrial production (a drop is expected after a strong February) could pressure the pound, as markets increasingly price in a more dovish stance from the Bank of England (BoE) in June. In the United States, retail sales data will show how the American consumer is holding up. After several months of resilience, April sales are expected to post a modest 0.4-0.6% increase, but much of that gain may be nominal – meaning households are spending more on gasoline and food rather than buying more goods. If the “control group” (excluding gasoline and autos) comes in below expectations, it would signal a sharp pullback in discretionary spending. That would be a notably bearish signal for US indices.

Main events of the day:
  • – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
  • – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)
  • – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)
Friday, May 15
Friday, May 15, marks the final pulse check for the mid-May session, highlighting “upstream” inflation pressures in Asia. The Japan Producer Price Index (PPI) is a critical metric for the yen’s long-term trajectory. Following a sharp acceleration to 2.6% y/y in March, the fastest growth since late 2023, the market consensus for the April data (reported today) suggests a further climb toward 3.0%-3.1%. This is the “cost-push” inflation the Bank of Japan has been watching. With transportation equipment and production machinery costs soaring due to the energy crisis, a “hot” PPI print would signal that Japanese firms are increasingly likely to pass these costs onto consumers. For the JPY, this adds to the case for a June rate hike, providing a potential floor for the currency against the Greenback.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

by JustMarkets, 2025.05.11

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