Avvertenza di Rischio: I CFD sono strumenti complessi e presentano un rischio significativo di perdere denaro rapidamente a causa della leva finanziaria. Il 64.57% dei conti degli investitori al dettaglio perdono denaro a causa del trading di CFD con questo fornitore. È importante valutare se si comprende il funzionamento dei CFD e se ci si può permettere di correre questo alto rischio di perdere il proprio denaro.

64.57% dei conti al dettaglio di CFD perdono denaro.

Avvertenza di Rischio: I CFD sono strumenti complessi e presentano un rischio significativo di perdere denaro rapidamente a causa della leva finanziaria. Il 64.57% dei conti degli investitori al dettaglio perdono denaro a causa del trading di CFD con questo fornitore. È importante valutare se si comprende il funzionamento dei CFD e se ci si può permettere di correre questo alto rischio di perdere il proprio denaro.

Week’s main events April 06 – April 10)

This week, global markets will enter the sixth week of tensions in the Persian Gulf, remaining extremely sensitive to any news regarding Operation “Epic Fury.” Traders will focus primarily on finding concrete evidence of de-escalation and progress in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as the current blockade continues to keep oil prices in extreme volatility. Alongside geopolitics, investors in the US will closely analyze the FOMC meeting minutes and the latest data on inflation (CPI) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE), seeking to understand how deeply the energy shock has penetrated the US economy and whether it will force the Fed to maintain a “hawkish” stance through the end of 2026.

The corporate sector is also returning to the forefront of the agenda as earnings season begins, with airline results serving as a key indicator of how the aviation industry is coping with record-high fuel prices. The global calendar will be rounded out by data on the services sector business activity index, which will reveal the resilience of the European economy, and China’s consumer price index, which will reflect demand dynamics in the world’s second-largest economy.

Monday, April 06

Monday is indeed set to be a ‘thin’ market with extremely low liquidity, as the major financial centers in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand remain closed for the Easter holidays. In the absence of the major European players, traders’ attention will shift entirely to the US session, where the release of the ISM Services PMI will be the main market driver. The forecast decline in the index from 56.1 to 54.8 could sound like a wake-up call for investors, signaling a slowdown in the largest sector of the US economy under pressure from high energy prices.

Main events of the day:
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Tuesday, April 07

Tuesday will provide a key indicator of the global economy, starting with the release of Swedish inflation data. This report is of great significance for the Swedish krona, as the Riksbank remains highly sensitive to any deviations from its 2% target. If the monthly figure shows an increase, this is likely to trigger a shift towards a ‘hawkish’ policy stance, potentially leading to a strengthening of the Swedish krona against both the euro and the dollar. Shortly afterward, attention will turn to the Eurozone and UK services PMI indices, which will provide final March data for the region’s dominant economic sector. Eurozone data is expected to fall from 51.9 to 50.1, whilst the UK is also forecast to show a decline from 53.9 to 51.2. A contraction in the services sector in the Eurozone and the UK will be a particularly negative factor for the euro and the British pound. During the US trading session, the US durable goods orders report will be the main driver of volatility for the US dollar and the stock markets. These figures reflect major business investment and consumer confidence regarding high-value goods. Following a period of slowdown, growth in line with the 1% forecast would indicate that the US industrial core is regaining momentum, strengthening the US dollar and likely exerting downward pressure on gold.

Main events of the day:
  • – Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – SEK (MED)
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
  • – US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – CAD (LOW)
Wednesday, April 08

Wednesday will be a pivotal day for divergences in monetary policy, with the key events being the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision and the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. The consensus is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep its official cash rate at 2.25%. However, it is important to remember that the RBNZ is the first to respond to changes in economic conditions, so there is a high probability that it will signal a possible rate hike in the near future if the conflict in the Middle East continues. This could provide a significant boost to the New Zealand dollar (NZD). In Asia, the Japanese Average Cash Earnings is a critical piece of the Bank of Japan’s puzzle. Markets are looking for a robust growth figure near 2.7% to confirm that the “virtuous cycle” between wages and prices is intact; a beat here would dramatically strengthen the Yen (JPY) as it brings a mid-year rate hike back into play. The New York session concludes with the heavyweight FOMC Meeting Minutes, which will provide the granular details behind the Fed’s recent decision to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Traders will be hunting for clues regarding the “terminal rate” and exactly how many officials are concerned about the recent stickiness in inflation. If the minutes reveal a growing “hawkish” consensus that rates need to stay restrictive well into the second half of 2026, the US Dollar (USD) will likely rally, while Gold (XAU) could face a late-day pullback. Additionally, US Crude Oil Reserves will remain the primary driver for WTI, with any surprise drawdown likely to push prices higher amid ongoing geopolitical supply risks.

Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Average Cash Earnings (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (HIGH)
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (HIGH)
  • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3) – CHF (MED)
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
  • – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU (HIGH)
Thursday, April 09

The main event will be the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in the US – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Since the forecast remains unchanged at 2.8% year-over-year, any unexpected rise in the figure will confirm that the disinflation process has stalled, likely triggering a sharp rise in the U.S. dollar and a sell-off in gold. Although US GDP data will also be released, markets often view it as lagging data, so the direct impact of PCE on interest rate expectations will be the dominant factor. In the energy sector, U.S. natural gas inventories are expected to show a seasonal build. Still, recent EIA reports point to a supply that is more limited than expected due to the expansion of LNG export capacity. If the inventory build comes in below the consensus estimate (which typically reflects colder-than-usual weather at the end of the season), natural gas prices (XNG) could sharply reverse higher.

Main events of the day:
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
  • – German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
  • – Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – MXN (MED)
  • – US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
  • – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)
Friday, April 10
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be the key event of the week. Analysts expect the monthly figure to remain at 0.3%, while the annual rate is projected to be 3.4%, significantly higher than the previous 2.0%. If the data comes in above expectations, it will signal that inflation is beginning to seep into the economy, likely leading to a sharp drop in the price of gold (XAU/USD) and a strengthening of the US dollar amid a growing narrative of “higher rates for longer.” At the same time, Canada’s unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 6.8% following a period of slowing employment growth. A higher-than-expected unemployment rate, combined with a rise in the change in the number of employed, will give the Bank of Canada (BoC) the green light to consider a more aggressive stance on monetary policy to prevent a sharp rise in inflation due to rising global oil prices. However, a weak Canadian jobs report could trigger a sharp sell-off in the Canadian dollar, which has now lost its correlation with oil prices.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
  • – China Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
  • – China Producer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
  • – Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – NOK (MED)
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU (HIGH)
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

by JustMarkets, 2025.04.06

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