Week’s main events (March 09 – March 13)

Global markets are entering a phase of heightened volatility, with the energy crisis in the Persian Gulf and its impact on global inflation trends remaining a key factor. This week, investors will focus on reports from the IEA and OPEC, which will assess the extent of the reduction in maritime fuel supplies, as well as on the latest data on consumer inflation (CPI) and the PCE index in the US.

Similar macroeconomic indicators will be presented by the largest economies in Europe and China, allowing us to assess the global economy’s resilience to the current commodity shock. Combined with the publication of UK GDP data and eurozone industrial production figures, the week promises to be decisive for short-term strategies in the currency and commodity sections. An additional challenge for traders will be the desynchronization of trading sessions: the US and Canada have already switched to daylight saving time, while Europe will do so later. This time shift will mean that important North American news and stock market openings will occur an hour earlier than usual.

Monday, March 09

The most impactful events for Monday are the German Industrial Production and China’s Inflation Rate, as they offer critical insights into the health of the world’s major manufacturing hubs. German industrial output is forecast to rebound with a 0.9% month-on-month increase in January, following a sharp 1.9% decline in December. In China, the annual inflation rate for February is expected to rise slightly to 0.5% y/y, up from 0.2% in January. While this indicates a modest recovery from near-deflationary levels, any reading that misses this target would suggest that domestic demand remains weak despite recent stimulus efforts. For markets, a lower-than-expected inflation print would likely pressure the Australian Dollar (AUD) and negatively impact indices like the HK50, as it would signal the need for more aggressive monetary easing from the PBoC. Meanwhile, Mexico’s inflation is expected to hold steady at 3.79%, where a surprise to the upside would support the Mexican Peso (MXN) by reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts by Banxico.

Main events of the day:

– China Inflation Rate (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2). – MXN (MED)

Tuesday, March 10

The most critical events for Tuesday are Japan’s Q4 GDP (final) and China’s Trade Balance, both of which serve as major barometers of economic health in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan’s final Q4 GDP is expected to be revised slightly from 0.1% q/q to 0.3%, a marginal improvement over the previous quarter but still reflecting a fragile recovery hampered by soft private consumption. If the final figure shows an upward revision or beats the 0.1% mark, it could provide significant support for the Japanese Yen (JPY) as it would bolster the Bank of Japan’s case for further policy normalization. In China, the trade surplus for the January-February period is forecast to remain robust at approximately $165 billion, despite ongoing global trade tensions and the impact of baseline tariffs. A trade balance that exceeds this expectation, particularly through strong export growth, would typically be positive for the Australian Dollar (AUD) and HK50, as it suggests resilient commodity demand. Additionally, keep an eye on Norway’s Inflation Rate, which is expected to decrease from 3.6% to 2.7% y/y. Any upside surprise here would likely strengthen the Norwegian Krone (NOK) as it would force Norges Bank to maintain its restrictive stance for longer than the market currently anticipates.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
– Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
– Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
– Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – NOK (MED)
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

Wednesday, March 11

The most significant events for Wednesday are the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the German Inflation Rate, as they will provide the definitive evidence needed for the Fed and ECB to calibrate their next interest rate moves. The US annual inflation rate is forecast to hold steady at 2.4%, which would mark its lowest level since mid-2021. If the actual data comes in higher than expected, particularly in the Core CPI (forecasted at 2.5%) or the services sector, it would likely trigger a rally in the US Dollar (USD) as investors scale back expectations for mid-year rate cuts. In Europe, the final German Inflation Rate for February is expected to be confirmed at 1.9%, slightly below the ECB’s 2% target. Confirmation of this cooling trend, or an even lower final revision, would likely exert downward pressure on the Euro (EUR), as it would give the ECB more room to consider aggressive monetary easing. Traders should also watch the US Crude Oil Reserves, where a consensus expects a build of 2.3 million barrels; a larger-than-anticipated surplus would signal weakening demand, potentially driving WTI Crude prices lower. Don’t forget about the geopolitical factor.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
– German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

Thursday, March 12

The most critical event on Thursday is the US Initial Jobless Claims, which will provide high-impact signals for the USD. Initial Jobless Claims are forecast to rise slightly to 217K from the previous 213K. A result above this forecast would signal further cooling in the labor market, potentially putting downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD) as it would encourage the Federal Reserve to consider a more dovish stance. Additionally, traders should pay close attention to BoE Governor Bailey’s speech. Focusing on weak growth risks would likely trigger a sell-off of the British Pound (GBP).

Main events of the day:

– Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – SEK (MED)
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speech at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (LOW)
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

Friday, March 13

The most critical events for Friday, March 13, are the US Core PCE Price Index and the UK GDP (Jan), which will define the mid-month trend for the USD and GBP. The Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is forecast to rise by 0.4% m/m, maintaining the annual rate at 3.0%. A reading that exceeds this forecast would signal that underlying inflation remains “sticky,” likely triggering a rally in the US dollar (USD) as markets price out potential interest rate cuts. This data will be complemented by the US Prelim Q4 GDP (+1.4%) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (forecast 71.0). A strong “double beat” on growth and sentiment would further cement USD dominance. In the UK, the January monthly GDP is expected to show a modest 0.2% expansion, rebounding from a flat December. If the data beats expectations, it would signal that the UK economy is gaining momentum early in the year, boosting the British pound (GBP). Additionally, watch the Canada Unemployment Rate (forecast 6.6%). An unexpected jump in joblessness would likely weaken the Canadian dollar (CAD) by increasing the probability of a more dovish stance from the Bank of Canada (BoC).

Main events of the day:

– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
– US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
– US Prelim GDP (q/q) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
– US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

by JustMarkets, 2025.03.09

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