Week’s main events (February 02 – February 06)
The first week of February is likely to see a continuation of unusual and nervous movements on global markets, which, since the beginning of the year, have been characterized by extreme volatility in the metals market and growing concerns about the depreciation of the US dollar against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. Investors will focus on the US labor market, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a key employment report (Non-Farm Payrolls). At the same time, JOLTS and ADP data will help provide a more detailed picture of the labor market. Additional signals on the economy will come from the ISM business activity indices and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. At the same time, several central banks – the ECB, the Bank of England (BoE), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and Banxico – will make decisions on interest rates. In Asia, the focus will be on China’s official and expanded business activity indices, which will provide an insight into the dynamics of the world’s second-largest economy at the start of the year.
On Monday, data on manufacturing activity among key economies will be released. This is an important health indicator to evaluate. Typically, an increase in the indicator has a favorable impact on the national exchange rate. Improvements in PMI readings are generally viewed positively by the market and can lead to short-term strengthening of the relevant national currencies, especially if the data exceeds expectations.
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- – China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
- – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
- – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)
The main economic event on Tuesday will be the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting. Almost 80% of consensus participants expect a 25-basis-point interest rate hike, which, if the scenario materializes, could provide additional support to the Australian dollar. However, if the regulator decides to leave the rate unchanged, the market will have to reassess its expectations for monetary policy, and the AUD may come under selling pressure. Also on Tuesday, traders will be focused on the US JOLTs Job Openings report, which traditionally sets the tone for perceptions of the labor market ahead of Friday’s key employment report. The forecast suggests an increase in job openings from 7.15 million to 7.21 million, a moderately positive signal for the US economy. Also worth paying attention to on Tuesday is New Zealand’s labor market data. This report is published quarterly and will strongly influence the RBNZ’s decision. Unemployment is expected to remain at 5.3%.
- – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
- – Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
- – Australia RBA Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – New Zealand Unemployment Rate (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (HIGH)
The volatility level on Wednesday is likely to be comparable to that on Monday. On this day, data on business activity in the services sector will be released, which traditionally can cause short-term movements in the currency market. It is worth interpreting this data in the standard way: an increase in the indicator usually signals a strengthening of the national currency, while a decrease signals a weakening. At the same time, it is important to evaluate the data not only relative to the consensus forecast, but also relative to the 50 level, which separates the phase of economic expansion from its contraction. On Wednesday, traders will also assess Eurozone inflation data. As a rule, these indicators do not cause sharp spikes in volatility, but they are important for forming expectations about the ECB’s monetary policy ahead of Thursday’s meeting. Inflation is expected to decline further, further strengthening the ECB’s position on keeping rates at current levels.
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
- – China RatingDog Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
- – Eurozone Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- – US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)
On Thursday, three central banks will hold meetings: the Bank of England (BoE), the ECB and the Bank of Mexico. In the UK, the Bank of England is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged at 3.75%. At the same time, the market’s key focus will be on the distribution of votes within the committee. The more votes in favor of lowering the rate, the greater the likelihood of policy easing at subsequent meetings, which could put short-term pressure on the British pound. About an hour after the Bank of England’s decision, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its meeting. It is almost certain that the ECB will keep the rate at 2%, so the main focus will shift to Christine Lagarde’s press conference. However, the markets are not anticipating any changes at this or the next meeting, so the euro’s reaction may be muted. At the end of the trading day, attention will shift to the Mexican central bank (Banxico) meeting. The rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 7%. Despite the lack of new decisions, keeping the rate at such a high level will continue to support carry trade activity using the Mexican peso. It’s a bank holiday in New Zealand.
- – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
- – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
- – UK BoE Monetary Policy Report at 14:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
- – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2); – EUR (HIGH)
- – Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate at 15:15 (GMT+2); – EUR (HIGH)
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
- – US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)
- – Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2). – MXN (HIGH)
- – German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
- – Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – SEK (MED)
- – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
- – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
- – US Non Farm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
- – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
- – US Michigan Inflation Expectations at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
- – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – CAD (MED)
by , 2025.02.02