Week’s main events (November 03 – November 07)

The prolonged US government shutdown is likely to delay the publication of several key macroeconomic data releases. The Nonfarm report may not be published for the second time in a row, which could cause serious market concern. In the area of monetary policy, interest rate decisions will be made by the Bank of England (BoE), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Riksbank of Sweden, Norges Bank, and the Central Bank of Mexico. In addition, the market is watching for the release of updated employment statistics in Canada and inflation figures in Switzerland. At the same time, major companies, including Palantir, AMD, Berkshire Hathaway, McDonald’s, and Qualcomm, are expected to issue quarterly reports.

Monday, November 03

The trading week will begin with the publication of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector. This indicator is traditionally viewed as a gauge of the overall state of the economy, and its improvement usually supports the national currency. Special attention will be paid to inflation statistics in Switzerland. The forecast suggests a 0.1% decline in the monthly indicator, which may put short-term pressure on the Swiss franc.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks (m/m) at 20:30 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, November 04

On Tuesday, investors will focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. The consensus forecast suggests that the key rate will remain at 3.6%. Against the backdrop of the recent Fed rate cut, this could support the Australian dollar and further strengthen it against the US dollar. Traders should also keep an eye on New Zealand’s quarterly labor market report, which traditionally has a significant impact on the NZD exchange rate. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 5.2% to 5.3%. The deterioration in the labor market could put additional pressure on the New Zealand dollar, reinforcing expectations of further RBNZ easing.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 09:40 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report at 22:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Unemployment Rate at 23:45 (GMT+2);
– US Trade Balance (Tentative) (GMT+2);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (Tentative) (GMT+2).

Wednesday, November 05

On Wednesday, relatively calm dynamics are expected on the currency market. During the day, business activity indicators in the service sector will be published, which do not directly affect currency rates but help us assess the overall state of the economy. As a rule, the index’s growth supports the national currency. The Riksbank meeting will attract the most attention. The consensus forecast is for the key rate to remain at 1.75%. At the time of publication of the decision, the Swedish krona may be more volatile. It is also worth paying attention to crude oil inventory data. The situation on the oil market remains tense. OPEC+ countries continue to increase production, while inventories are at record levels. This is having a negative impact on oil prices.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US ADP Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– Canada Services PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

Thursday, November 06

On Thursday, the markets will focus on three central bank meetings. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep its key rate at 4.0% to assess the possible impact of the upcoming budget, which will be presented later this month. A similar decision is expected from Norges Bank: keeping the rate at 4.0% would mark the second consecutive meeting without change and may support the Norwegian krone. Meanwhile, analysts expect Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) to cut its rate from 7.5% to 7.25%, citing weak economic growth and global trade uncertainty. Against this backdrop, the Mexican peso may experience short-term pressure.

Another important report, which traders often overlook, will be published during the Asian session. This is data on wage growth in Japan. The indicator is expected to grow from 1.5% to 1.7% y/y, which could potentially support the weakening yen (JPY) amid stimulus measures from the new prime minister.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Average Cash Earnings (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Sweden Inflation Rate at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Norway Norges Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Rate Statement at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– Mexico Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (Tentative) (GMT+2).

Friday, November 07

On Friday, uncertainty surrounding the US labor market report will be a key driver of market dynamics. If the data is released, it could trigger a sharp increase in volatility. Weak employment figures could put significant pressure on the US dollar. At the same time, another delay in publication could also be perceived negatively, heightening concerns about the state of the economy and putting pressure on the US stock market. Among other macroeconomic publications, attention will focus on the Canadian employment report and Chinese trade balance data. An increase in the surplus could support Asian stock indices. In contrast, a further cooling of the Canadian labor market would increase the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada and put pressure on the Canadian dollar.

Main events of the day:

– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
– German Trade Balance(m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (Tentative) (GMT+2);
– US Non-Farm Employment Change (Tentative) (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2025.11.03

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