Week’s main events (June 30 – July 04)

This week, investor attention will be firmly fixed on developments in trade negotiations between the United States and its key trading partners as the July 9 deadline approaches. This marks the end of the 90-day tariff moratorium initiated in April, raising the stakes for potential policy shifts and market responses. Simultaneously, markets will closely watch the Central Bank Forum, where leading policymakers are expected to provide fresh insights into the outlook for global economic growth and the trajectory of monetary policy. On the data front, the US employment report is anticipated to indicate a continued cooling of labor market conditions. Other significant releases include the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, as well as the US, Canadian, and Australian trade balance figures, all of which will contribute to shaping investor sentiment and central bank expectations. Additionally, inflation data from the Eurozone and Switzerland will be released, further influencing investor sentiment and central bank expectations.

Monday, June 30

Monday’s session will begin with a heavy focus on Asia, as investors closely monitor key economic activity data from China. The official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs are expected to provide critical insight into the momentum of the world’s second-largest economy amid ongoing concerns over sluggish domestic demand and weak industrial performance. These figures could influence Asian indices. German inflation will be the key data point in the European session . A modest uptick from 2.1% to 2.2% year-on-year is forecast, and any surprise could impact ECB rate expectations.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, July 01

On Tuesday, traders should not miss essential manufacturing PMI data in the main economies. It serves as a leading indicator of economic health. Generally, if the actual data is better than expected, it is positive for the currency. Also, Tuesday will be dominated by a wave of central bank commentary as top monetary policymakers gather for the highly anticipated Central Bank Forum. Their insights on inflation dynamics, policy trajectories, and economic resilience will be crucial in shaping interest rate expectations in the second half of the year. In the US session, attention will shift to the JOLTS Job Openings Report. A decline from 7.391 million to an expected 7.1 million openings would reinforce a softer employment trend and potentially bolster expectations for Fed policy easing later this year.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– Japan Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speech Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Ueda Lagarde Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speech Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, July 02

Midweek trading will bring a sharper focus on labor market conditions in both the Eurozone and the United States. The Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 6.2%, maintaining a historically low level that continues to support the ECB’s cautious policy stance. Later in the day, the health of the US labor market will come into sharper view with the release of the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. After a notably weak 37K reading last month, markets anticipate a rebound to 90K. However, any downside surprise could reinforce signs of a broader labor market slowdown, influencing expectations ahead of Thursday’s official payrolls report.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:15 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, July 03

Thursday will be pivotal for global markets, with a strong macroeconomic calendar headlined by the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which has been moved forward by one day due to the Independence Day holiday on July 4. Markets will be watching closely to assess the pace of labor market softening. Consensus expects job creation to slow to 120K from the previous 139K, reinforcing a narrative of gradual cooling. It’s a negative scenario for the US dollar. In Europe, attention will also be focused on inflation dynamics, with Switzerland’s CPI expected to show a rare decline (-0.1% forecast vs. previous +0.1% y/y), which could influence the SNB’s rate outlooks. The SNB recently brought the rate to 0%, and inflation going below zero could increase the likelihood of a rate cut into negative territory.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, July 04

Friday is set to be a low-volatility session, with limited market-moving events on the calendar and US financial markets closed in observance of Independence Day. As a result, trading volumes are expected to be thin, and directional conviction may be subdued across major asset classes. The spotlight will fall on the Eurozone Producer Price Index. A notable deceleration is anticipated, with the year-over-year figure forecast to fall to 0.3% from the previous 0.7%. If confirmed, this would further support expectations for an ECB rate cut later this year by signaling continued easing in pipeline inflation pressures.

Main events of the day:

– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2025.06.30

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