{"id":11585,"date":"2025-10-20T06:22:43","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T06:22:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/?p=11585"},"modified":"2025-10-20T06:22:45","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T06:22:45","slug":"weekly-overview-2025-10-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/es\/analytics\/weekly-overview-2025-10-20\/","title":{"rendered":"Week&#8217;s main events (October 20 \u2013 October 24)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"ag-base_page ag-m-format-container\">\n<h1 class=\"ag-base_title-page\">Week&#8217;s main events (October 20 \u2013 October 24)<\/h1>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics-page ag-market-overview-page\">\n<p class=\"ag-analytics_text\">This week, markets are focused on a series of Chinese macro indicators (GDP, Labor Market, Retail Sales), the PBoC decision, and the results of the fourth plenum of the Communist Party, which sets political and industrial priorities for the coming years. New Zealand and Canadian inflation data are also important for commodity-sensitive currency pairs (AUD, NZD, CAD). Inflation reports are also expected in the UK and Japan. Against the backdrop of the escalating tariff dispute between the US and China and the third week of the US government shutdown, some important US releases may be delayed, which amplifies the role of each published figure and leaders&#8217; speeches in creating volatility. Flash data on PMI indices in the Eurozone, Germany, the UK, India, Japan, and Australia will be published in other countries. The US corporate earnings season is also entering an active phase: major companies such as Tesla, GE, Netflix, IBM, Intel, AT&amp;T, Verizon, P&amp;G, and Coca-Cola are expected to present their results.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Monday, October 20<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">\n<p>On Monday, traders&#8217; attention will be focused on macroeconomic data from China. First, this is the PBoC&#8217;s decision on key interest rates. Both the 1-year and 5-year rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively. Second, from a macroeconomic perspective, attention will be focused on China&#8217;s GDP data (projected +4.7% y\/y, current figure +5.2% y\/y) and industrial production figures (projected +5.0% y\/y, current figure +5.0% y\/y). Weak data is likely to cause a weakening of the CNY, a fall in Chinese indices (FTSE China A50, Hang Seng HK50), and pressure on commodity markets (metals, energy) due to the risk of lower demand. However, any hints of policy easing from the PBoC could restore confidence and support risk assets. Also on Monday, the Chinese Communist Party&#8217;s plenum will begin, where 5-year plans, technological self-sufficiency, and a strategy for rare earths will be discussed \u2013 its decisions may have a long-term impact on industrial support policies and export restrictions. Traders should also pay attention to New Zealand&#8217;s inflation data on Monday, which is published quarterly (projected +2.7% y\/y, current +2.9%). Lower inflationary pressure could support the NZD as it weakens the RBNZ&#8217;s dovish stance.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q\/q) at 00:45 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m\/m) at 04:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China GDP (q\/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Industrial Production (y\/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Retail Sales (y\/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Unemployment Rate (m\/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Canada BOC Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Communist Party Fourth Plenum (All Day).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Tuesday, October 21<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">On Tuesday, traders will focus on two key reports: New Zealand&#8217;s trade balance (published quarterly) and Canada&#8217;s monthly inflation data. New Zealand is expected to see a widening deficit, which could negatively affect the NZD. In Canada, inflationary pressure is expected to ease from 2.2% y\/y to 1.9% y\/y. The median prognosis, which is also monitored by the Bank of Canada (BoC), is expected to be 3.0% y\/y, down from 3.1% y\/y last month. Given the strong labor market data for September, lower inflation will support the CAD as it reduces the likelihood of further interest rate cuts. The only counterbalance is the fall in oil prices, which could prevent the CAD (commodity currency) from strengthening.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 New Zealand Trade Balance (q\/q) at 00:45 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Switzerland Trade Balance (m\/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Canada Consumer Price Index (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Communist Party Fourth Plenum (All Day).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Wednesday, October 22<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">\n<p>On Wednesday, traders will analyze UK inflation data (an important release for BoE expectations) and crude oil inventory data, a report that significantly affects the price of WTI and Brent. In the UK, consumer inflation is expected to rise from 3.8% y\/y to 4.0% y\/y. Higher inflation could support the GBP, as it would increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting. As for inventory data, last week&#8217;s data showed an unexpected increase in inventories, which put pressure on oil prices. Here, we should react to \u201cWhat-If\u201d. If inventories are published above the prognosis, we expect oil prices to fall, and vice versa.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Japan Trade Balance (q\/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Consumer Price Index (m\/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:25 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Crude Oil Reserves (w\/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Communist Party Fourth Plenum (All Day).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Thursday, October 23<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">On Thursday, traders will focus on Canadian retail sales data. A sharp increase is expected compared to last month (projected +1.0% m\/m, last month -0.8% m\/m), which could support the CAD. Due to the shutdown, US Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data may be postponed. Their publication could cause sharp short-term volatility for the USD and stock markets after a protracted government shutdown.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ag-analytics_list\">\n<li>\u2013 Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m\/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Mexico Retail Sales (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Canada Retail Sales (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Initial Jobless Claims (w\/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3), (Tentative);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Existing Home Sales (m\/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3), (Tentative);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Natural Gas Storage (w\/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 China Communist Party Fourth Plenum (All Day).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title\">Friday, October 24<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list\">A wide range of PMIs for various countries is expected on Friday. PMI reports provide an early signal of the dynamics of the service and manufacturing sectors. As a rule, strong PMIs trigger risk-on sentiment, leading to currency appreciation. If the US government shutdown is lifted by Friday and the CPI report is published, this could lead to strong short-term volatility, even if the data does not differ significantly from expectations. But overall, the medium-term outlook should be as follows: falling inflation will increase the likelihood of an FOMC rate cut, which will negatively affect the USD but will be positive for risk assets. Among the large number of reports on Friday, it is also worth paying attention to the inflation data in Japan. Inflation is expected to rise from 2.7% to 2.9% y\/y. Rising inflationary pressure will increase the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which is positive for the JPY.<\/div>\n<div class=\"ag-analytics_title-list__strong\">Main events of the day:<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>\u2013 Australia Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Australia Services PMI (m\/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan National Core CPI (m\/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Japan Services PMI (m\/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Retail Sales (m\/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 German Services PMI (m\/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 Eurozone Services PMI (m\/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 UK Services PMI (m\/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Consumer Price Index (m\/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3), (Tentative);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Manufacturing PMI (m\/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3), (Tentative);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Services PMI (m\/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3), (Tentative);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US New Home Sales (m\/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3), (Tentative);<\/li>\n<li>\u2013 US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m\/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"ag-analytics_text\">by <span class=\"author vcard\"><span class=\"fn\">JustMarkets<\/span><\/span>, 2025.10.20<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"ag-base-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/secure.justmarkets.eu\/es\/register\/?sl=1\">Open Account<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week&#8217;s main events (October 20 \u2013 October 24) This week, markets are focused on a series of Chinese macro indicators (GDP, Labor Market, Retail Sales), the PBoC decision, and the results of the fourth plenum of the Communist Party, which sets political and industrial priorities for the coming years. New &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[189,331,337],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analytics","category-market-overview","category-weekly-overview"],"featured_image_src":"","blog_images":{"medium":"","large":""},"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"ams_acf":[{"key":"icon","label":"Icon","value":false}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11585","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11585"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11585\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11587,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11585\/revisions\/11587"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11585"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11585"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/justmarkets.eu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11585"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}